* Julian
Borger
* o The Guardian, o Saturday August 23 2008
A little before dawn on a recent summer morning,
a convoy of three large blue lorries, a handful of police cars and a bus
rumbled along the dual carriageway heading north out of the Bulgarian capital,
Sofia. Even if it had not been so early, the motorcade would probably not
have drawn much attention. The lorries were unmarked, the bus carrying
a few sleepy policemen was old and scruffy, while the lumbering shipment
was big and slow enough to explain the escort and its flashing blue lights.
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Nor did he hide his lack of enthusiasm for the presence of journalists, suggesting that we might prefer to see a wet T-shirt competition underway in the nearby town of Kozloduy than observe the casks being loaded on to the giant barge. Gorinov said later he would have been less nervous if the HEU shipment had gone by rail, but the necessary transit agreements would have taken too long to negotiate. It had been decided to take the quicker but riskier option of moving the uranium casks about 180km to the Danube by road, where it was theoretically vulnerable to ambush or protests. "That was a big challenge, from the security point of view, and from the point of view of keeping it secret," Gorinov said, "but we had a constant exchange of information with the Bulgarian security services." A chain-smoker, he began to relax only when technicians in white coats and caps lowered the blue containers into the belly of the 86m barge and slid its long lid over them. "It looks just like any other barge - business as usual on the Danube," he declared triumphantly. As the barge moved off downstream, heading towards Ukraine and a rendezvous with a Russian train, Bulgaria became officially free of HEU. There are two kinds of nuclear bomb. Modern warheads involve an implosion device, in which the fissile material, normally plutonium, is violently compressed by shaped charges until it reaches critical mass, and the process of nuclear fission becomes self-sustaining. This is an extremely hard trick to pull off reliably, and is the province of sophisticated state programmes. However, there is a much cruder form of bomb, which achieves critical mass by firing one chunk of HEU at another. A 'gun-type' bomb such as this, Little Boy, was dropped on Hiroshima. As the apartheid government in South Africa discovered, it can be developed by a relatively small team with some basic engineering skills. It is the sort of bomb a terrorist organisation would build. Plutonium is useless for such a device. It requires HEU, which happens to be far more plentiful and much less well guarded. Under the GTRI, a total of 610kg of HEU fuel (both spent and fresh) has now been returned to Russia from countries including Serbia, Romania, Libya, Uzbekistan, Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, Latvia and Vietnam. More than a third of those shipments took place in 2007, as the urgency underlying the programme has increased. US-made HEU has meanwhile been repatriated from Latin America, Europe and south-east Asia. In fact, at about the same time the uranium convoy was leaving Sofia, secret shipments of HEU and plutonium were on the way to the US from Japan, Sweden, Germany and Denmark. More than 50 HEU reactors around the world have been converted to use LEU. Four reactors have been closed down altogether. Hungary and Kazakhstan are next on Bieniawski and Bolshinsky's visiting list, after which virtually all the fresh HEU fuel being stored at civilian sites around the world will have been dealt with. And almost all the Soviet-origin spent HEU, which can still contain high concentrations of weapons-grade material, is due to be removed from civilian sites around the world by 2010. Bieniawski said every day counts. "We are very concerned about this material. We take this threat to be very real. The information that we have lets us know we have to act as aggressively as possible to remove this material," he said. The programme does not include military stockpiles, which are usually better guarded and are part of a different scheme, nor does it cover 'gap' HEU fuel, made in neither the US nor the Soviet Union, but in countries such as South Africa that ran their own nuclear programmes. Ukraine and Belarus are also reluctant to give up all their HEU. There is another, even more troubling, question hanging over Bieniawski and Bolshinsky's work: could their efforts already be too late? They are, in effect, running a race blindfold. They do not know if their adversaries - the terrorist groups, smugglers and bent officials with whom they work - are behind them, breathing down their necks, or ahead of them, or even whether they have already crossed the finishing line. What is beyond doubt is that they are in the race - and their footprints are all around. Since the end of the cold war, the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has logged more than 800 incidents in which radioactive material has gone missing or been seized from smugglers. Eighteen of those cases involved weapons-grade material, HEU or plutonium, mostly of Soviet origin. Another seven cases of weapons-grade theft or contraband have yet to be confirmed by the IAEA, but are considered well-founded. In a recent example, a Russian fish trader and occasional smuggler named Oleg Khinsagov was arrested in Georgia in early 2006. He had about 100g of weapons-grade HEU in his leather jacket, wrapped in a plastic bag, and was under the impression he was about to sell his sample to a Muslim from a 'serious organisation' on the market for fissile material. Khinsagov told his customer there were two more kilograms available. The would-be buyer turned out to be a Georgian government agent, and Khinsagov is now sitting in prison in Tbilisi, apparently too terrified of his Russian contacts to name them. At a time when long-standing Russian-Georgian tensions have exploded into conflict, Moscow has been unhelpful in the extreme, implausibly claiming that it is impossible to tell where Khinsagov's HEU came from. Coincidentally or not, an estimated 2kg of HEU went missing when a top-secret former Soviet nuclear laboratory in the Georgian region of Abkhazia fell to Russian-backed separatists in 1993. It simply disappeared into the chaotic underworld of the Caucasus where organised crime thrives on national rivalries, and has not been seen since. Last November, on the other side of the world, two groups of armed men broke into the emergency control centre at South Africa's supposedly high-security Pelindaba nuclear facility, where hundreds of kilograms of HEU are stored - they stumbled on a senior security official who was not supposed to have been there but was keeping his girlfriend company. The intruders shot him and fled. In formal testimony to the IAEA, the South African government admitted the attackers were 'technically sophisticated' and had 'prior knowledge of the electronic security systems'. On the other hand, they insisted the site's fissile material had not been in danger and that only a computer had been taken. There have been no arrests so far. Most of the nuclear thefts located by the IAEA to date have involved small quantities of HEU, far short of the 55kg necessary to build a gun-type bomb, but no one knows how much more has disappeared unnoticed. Matthew Bunn, a proliferation expert at Harvard, has estimated the risk of a nuclear attack on the US in the next decade to be 29%. He was once asked by an investment bank to carry out a similar exercise for London. He will not say what he told the bank, revealing only that he estimated a smaller risk than his US estimate, but still 'a real number'. James Acton, a nuclear proliferation expert at King's College London, said, 'Even if you think that there is a one per cent, or half per cent, chance of there being such a catastrophic event, it's probably worth taking a lot more precautions than we are at the moment.' A terrorist group could make do with much less than the 55kg of HEU necessary to achieve critical mass and detonate whatever it had managed to steal or buy on the black market in the form of a 'dirty bomb'. Acton said radioactive material could also be sprayed like an aerosol across a wide urban expanse, in a stealth attack that could pass unnoticed until it was too late. "If people insist on the same standards [for radioactivity] we have now, we would have to give up large areas of the city. People would ultimately have to get used to the risk of going back to a slightly contaminated part of London," Acton said. It would be so easy to perform and so devastating in its effects, he added: "I really don't know why an attack hasn't happened already." Dhiren Barot, a north London al-Qaida member arrested in 2004 on terrorism charges, had been planning a dirty bomb attack using tiny radioactive particles found in home smoke alarms, which he intended to buy by the thousand. Jacqui Smith, the home secretary, has said the government is taking the threat seriously and a computer simulation of a radiological attack on London was carried out by the Home Office last year. Senior officials in the Bush administration took part in a similar exercise last year, involving three simultaneous dirty bomb blasts, and Spain, another recent terrorist target, carried out a drill earlier this year. Meanwhile, radiation detectors are being installed in ports around the world, as a last line of defence against a smuggled nuclear device. So far they have produced literally millions of false alarms (a particular potassium isotope in bananas, for example, can set off the sirens). The White House has its own nuclear bomb squad, which it scrambled in 2005 to intercept US-bound ships suspected of carrying a weapon. It turned out they were carrying scrap metal contaminated by illegally dumped radioactive material. This is the emerging battlefield of the 21st century. Western governments have little idea whether they are being overly paranoid or recklessly negligent in their preparations. The potential is so horrifying, there seems little choice but to prepare for the worst. |