Michael Dittmar
2010-08-16 ZURICH – Repeatedly in recent years there have been calls for
a revival of civilian nuclear power. Yet that renaissance never seems to
come.
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Current projections indicate that uranium shortages in the coming years can be avoided only if existing and new uranium mines operate according to plan. Indeed, extrapolations of global supply that foresee an increase in uranium mining are based on claims about the ability to expand output in Kazakhstan. So far, uranium mining in Kazakhstan has increased roughly as expected, from 4,357 tons in 2005 to 8,521 tons in 2008 to 14,000 tons in 2009. But it remains to be seen if the uranium mining in this country can indeed increase further to 18,000 tons in 2010 and to 30,000 tons by 2018. According to the WNA's latest estimates, from July 2010, the expected uranium extraction figure for 2010 has actually been decreased to 15,000 tons. The view that the amount of energy derived from nuclear power worldwide will continue its slow decrease during the coming years is further supported by the 2008 annual report of the Euratom Supply Agency, which coordinates the long-term uranium needs of nuclear power plants within the European Union. According to the agency's forecast, uranium demand in Europe will fall from 21,747 tons in 2010 to 17,378 tons by 2018 and roughly 16,000 tons by 2024. These numbers indicate that the EU, currently producing about 1/3 of the world's nuclear electric energy, is heading for a reduction in nuclear-energy production of up to 20% over the coming 10 years. One can also expect that the current worldwide economic crisis will not help to accelerate the construction of nuclear power plants and new uranium mines. In summary, the hard facts about nuclear energy are inconsistent with the possibility of a worldwide renaissance of nuclear energy. Indeed, they point toward a continuing slow phase-out of civilian nuclear energy in most of the large OECD countries. It thus seems unavoidable that energy consumers, especially in many rich countries, will have to learn to exchange their current worries about the distant future consequences of global warming for the reality of energy shortages during periods of peak demand. Such shortages could result either in chaotic supplies and power outages or in a coordinated policy of energy rationing. In the absence of nuclear-energy revival, most of us will be forced to reduce our direct energy consumption. Let us hope that we can learn to adapt to simpler – though perhaps still satisfying – lifestyles. Michael
Dittmar, physicist at ETH, Zurich
and working at CERN, Geneva. Voir également: La pénurie d'uranium approche à grands pas (Technology Review, MIT) |